Updated Whip check for Friday afternoon: Add Boyd and Altmire, and you've got 211 'no' votes, 13 undecided 

Like Democratic Reps. Steve Lynch (Mass.) and Mike Arcuri (N.Y.), Travis Childers (Miss.) is voting no on the health care bill. This comes as no big surprise, given the district he will have to defend and his generally conservative lean in office so far.

A bigger surprise is Rep. John Adler, D-N.J., who had grumbled earlier but now appears adamant in opposition.

And the biggest surprise, to me, is Rep. Jason Atlmire, D-Pa., who moments ago announced he is a "no."

Rep. Joseph Cao, R-La., who voted "yes" in November on the House health care bill, now looks like a firm "no" as well. So with all 178 Republicans voting "no," I now count 33 Democrats on the record as planning to vote "no," for a total of 211.

Assuming that they all really do vote no -- a big assumption -- here are what I consider the 13 biggest question marks at this point for the Democrats:

Nick Rahall, D-W.Va. -- Update: His attempt to cut an unrealistic abortion deal involving passage of a Senate bill "in the future" demonstrates that he's not sincere in his opposition to the Senate language. He told locals yesterday afternoon that he will vote against the bill unless its abortion provisions are changed -- which they will not be. (The lede in the linked story is buried.)
Mike Michaud, D-Maine -- His name suddenly popped up when he voted against the use of the Slaughter Solution yesterday.
Brad Ellsworth, D-Ind. -- He's running for Senate in Indiana, and he really diminishes his chances if he votes "yes."
Earl Pomeroy, D-N.D. -- The revelation that the bill now contains a special provision for North Dakota will be damaging this fall, as he faces a serious challenge for the first time in years.
Harry Teague, D-N.M. -- Voted against the Slaughter Solution yesterday.
Harry Mitchell, D-Ariz. -- Voted against the Slaughter Solution yesterday.
Chris Carney, D-Pa. -- He looks like a no, but a deal by Rahall could change that.
Henry Cuellar, D-Tex. -- Leans "yes."
Kathy Dahlkemper
, D-Pa.
Glenn Nye, D-Va. -- Voted against the Slaughter Solution yesterday.
Zack Space, D-Ohio
Solomon Ortiz, D-Tex.
Jim Matheson, D-Utah

I'm just assuming that all of the liberals who have voiced doubts -- such as Suzanne Kosmas (Fla.), Luis Gutierrez (Ill.), Mike Capuano (Mass.), Ed Markey (Mass.), and Carol Shea-Porter (N.H.), among others -- will fold and vote "yes" for the party's sake. If Dennis Kucinich, D-Ohio, can break and vote for what he has called an insurance industry giveaway, so will they.

Marcy Kaptur, D-Ohio, looks like a "yes" too. Her opposition to abortion funding seems to have melted away with a kiss on the cheek from Obama.

I would caution, however, based on my experience with the Prescription Drug Benefit of 2003, that this kind of whip counting is just so much pre-hatch chicken-counting. I was at Human Events then, and my colleague John Gizzi and I had spoken to several firmly committed "no" votes -- including Trent Franks (Ariz.), Butch Otter (Idaho) and Steve King (Iowa) -- who buckled under pressure.

Also, do not expect this bill to fail on the floor. Pelosi will either get the votes she needs, or else she will pull the bill and wait until special elections to fill vacant seats in Hawaii, Pennsylvania and Florida, and until the planned resignation of Rep. Nathan Deal, R-Ga., who is running for governor and, according to some reports, trying to evade an ethics investigation.

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Michael Daboll

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