Sunday surveys put Brown lead at nine-plus points over Coakley 

A survey conducted Sunday in Massachusetts finds Republican Scott Brown with a nearly 10 point lead over Democrat Martha Coakley in the special election campaign to fill the U.S. Senate seat occupied for nearly five decades by Ted Kennedy.

Massachusetts voters go to the polls Tuesday in a campaign that until only a few weeks ago seemed like a cake-walk for Coakley, the state's incumbent attorney general.

The survey was conducted for Pajamas Media whose Roger Simon this morning describes the results:

"A poll taken Sunday afternoon while President Obama was in Massachusetts campaigning for Democrat Martha Coakley against Republican Scott Brown for the open Senate seat in that state showed Brown leading his Democratic opponent by 9.6% (51.9% to 42.3% with 5.7% undecided)."

The telephone survey conducted by Cross Target was of 574 likely voters and has a margin of error of 4.09 percent.

Another survey conducted Sunday found an almost identical 9.6 percent lead for Brown. This second survey was conducted by the Merriman River Group (MRG), which said its findings indicate "that Scott Brown leads Martha Coakley 50.8% – 41.2% in the contest to fill the seat of the late Senator Ted Kennedy. Liberty Party candidate Joe Kennedy pulls in just 1.8% support, while 6.2% of voters are still not sure."

Significantly, MRG's results suggest strongly that the Massachusetts electorate has pretty much made up its mind on this race:

"Brown and Coakley both have most of their supporters locked in. 98% of both candidate’s supporters say they are definitely or probably going to vote for their candidate. In contrast, 22% of Kennedy’s supporters are just leaning toward him, suggesting that Brown and Coakley may both want to take aim at swaying those voters," the MRG summary said.

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A daily newspaper covering San Francisco, San Mateo County and serving Alameda, Marin and Santa Clara counties.
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