Reapportionment thoughts 

Next month, supposedly, we’re supposed to get the final numbers from the Census Bureau that will determine which states lose congressional seats and which states gain.

Polidata crunched the 2009 population estimates to come up with a best guess, and it’s a familiar story: closer to the Great Lakes, states lose seats; in the South, they gain them.

Here’s Polidata’s list (again, these are based on 2009 population estimates, and the 2010 numbers will likely be different):

  • Gainers: AZ +1; FL +1; GA +1; NV +1; SC +1; TX +4; UT +1; WA +1.
  • Losers: IL -1; IA -1; LA -1; MA -1; MI -1; MN -1; NJ -1; NY -1; OH -2; PA -1.

A couple of quick reactions:

1) States Obama won would lose a net of 7 votes in the Electoral College. That includes a net loss of 2 EVs in swing states — 3 if you count Pennsylvania as a swing states.
2) Polidata lists the states that are on the bubble, so, some of these losers might not lose (like Minnesota), some states not listed above could lose (like Missouri or California) or gain (like Oregon), and some of these wins might be smaller (like Texas).
Here are the bubble states according to Polidata’s analysis of the 2009 population estimates:

* 435: MO with about 10,000 to spare
* 434: TX with about 40,000 to spare
* 433: CA with about 120,000 to spare
* 432: WA with about 30,000 to spare
* 431: SC with about 20,000 to spare

# States which would not receive seats but are close to the cutoff:

* 436: MN would be about 10,000 short
* 437: OR would be about 20,000 short
* 438: AZ would be about 50,000 short
* 439: FL would be about 150,000 short
* 440: NC would be about 75,000 short
* 441: IL would be about 140,000 short
* 442: OH would be about 130,000 short
* 443: NJ would be about 110,000 short
* 444: MA would be about 90,000 short
* 445: LA would be about 70,000 short

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Timothy P. Carney

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