Obama faces tough reelection bid from 'anyone but Obama' 

According to this Gallup poll, a hypothetical Republican candidate is within the margin of error in a 2012 matchup against Obama -- 44 percent to 42 percent. It's a sign of weakness, but I wouldn't read too much into the result as a real flesh-and-blood candidate may fare worse for any number of reasons. Then again, the survey is based on "adults" rather than a "likely voters" polling sample which is more reliable and usually skews more conservative.

The real bad news for the White House in the poll is the continued souring of independents on Obama. Independents are against Obama by a fourteen point margin. It would be very hard to win reelection if that trend continues.

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Mark Hemingway

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