Is Virginia’s 11th November’s bellwether? 

Former Virginia Republican Congressman Tom Davis, whose knowledge of electoral politics is impressively encyclopedic, told National Review Online that if a Republican manages to win back his old 11th District seat in November, the GOP will regain control of the House:

“Davis, who ran the National Republican Congressional Committee for four years a decade ago, believes this district is roughly the 45th most difficult pickup for the GOP. On that reckoning, if the Republican candidate carries the 11th district, the GOP will control the House of Representatives next year.”

Two conservative Republicans are vying in today’s Virginia primary to take on Rep. Gerry Connolly, D-11th: Keith Fimian, a conservative Northern Virginia businessman who lost to Connolly in 2008, and Pat Herrity, the Springfield representative on the Fairfax Board of Supervisors.

But the bigger news is that Connolly has been peppering the 11th District with robo-calls touting his supposed fiscal conservatism in voting against a congressional pay raise and another round of stimulus spending.

This is after he voted for the TARP bailout, Stimulus 1, the House version of cap-and-trade, and Obamacare.

This laughable attempt by Connolly to position himself with 11th District voters as a “moderate” even before he knows who his opponent will be in November is the best indication yet that the freshman incumbent feels vulnerable. After riding Barack Obama’s coattails into the House, Connolly is apparently worried he’ll be dragged out of it by angry voters.

If Davis is right (and he has a long track record of accurate predictions), House Speaker Nancy Pelosi will be watching this race closely, because if Connolly goes down, so will she.

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