How did Research 2000 conduct its polls for Daily Kos? Here’s one possibility. 

I’ve been reading over the details of the Daily Kos complaints against Research 2000 and the polls the firm conducted (or as Kos alleges, did not conduct) for the website.

Were the results in our little table a fluke? The R2K weekly polls report 778 M-F pairs. For their favorable ratings (Fav), the even-odd property matched 776 times. For unfavorable (Unf)  there were 777 matches.

Common sense says that that result is highly unlikely, but it helps to do a more precise calculation. Since the odds of getting a match each time are essentially 50%, the odds of getting 776/778 matches are just like those of getting 776 heads on 778 tosses of a fair coin. Results that extreme happen less than one time in 10228. That’s one followed by 228 zeros. (The number of atoms within our cosmic horizon is something like 1 followed by 80 zeros.) For the Unf, the odds are less than one in 10231….

There is no remotely realistic way that a simple tabulation and subsequent rounding of the results for M’s and F’s could possibly show that detailed similarity. Therefore the numbers on these two separate groups were not generated just by independently polling them.

Somehow, this keeps coming to mind:

About The Author

David Freddoso

David Freddoso came to the Washington Examiner in June 2009, after serving for nearly two years as a Capitol Hill-based staff reporter for National Review Online. Before writing his New York Times bestselling book, The Case Against Barack Obama, he spent three years assisting Robert Novak, the legendary Washington... more
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