Hawaii’s Scott Brown? 

Jim Geraghty on the race to fill Hawaii Democrat Neil Abercrombie’s seat:

With Scott Brown winning a Senate seat in Massachusetts, the Bay State no longer qualifies as the toughest terrain for Republican candidates. So which deep-blue spot will be the next one to shock the political world? It could be Hawaii’s 1st congressional district, which encompasses Honolulu and is sometimes referred to as “Barack Obama’s home district,” since the president lived in Hawaii’s capital city during his teen years. Obama carried HI-1 by a margin of 70 percent to 28 percent in 2008, and the retiring Democratic congressman who held this seat from 1990 to February 2010, Neil Abercrombie, usually won with more than 60 percent of the vote.

But thanks to quirky state rules, the election to replace Abercrombie for the remainder of his term will be a winner-take-all race with three major candidates — two Democrats and one Republican — and all votes will be cast by mail. The deadline for submitting ballots is May 22.

The National Republican Congressional Committee thought Honolulu city councilman Charles Djou would make a particularly strong candidate in normal circumstances. Now that he only needs to win a plurality against two well-known Democrats, Djou may never have a better chance to capture the seat.

Read the rest here. As Geraghty notes, Republicans have reason for hope:

When the race began, the Cook Political Report considered Hawaii’s first district to be a “safe” Democratic seat. Then it reclassified the seat as a “likely” Democratic hold, and on March 18 it moved HI-1 into the “toss up” category.

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