Dem pollster Stan Greenberg agrees: Dems in big trouble 

I find it interesting that veteran Democratic pollster Stan Greenberg agrees with my Wednesday Examiner column that if the November elections were held today, Republicans would win control of Congress. As I read Greenberg, he’s talking about the House and not necessarily the Senate, in which Republicans’ chances of winning a majority depend on winning just about all the conceivably close races. And he notes, as I do, that opinion could change between now and November. But Greenberg’s column is evidence that one of the Democrats’ best campaign consultants is reading the numbers much as I do. My sense is that many Democratic politicians and consultants are averting their gaze from these dreadful numbers; perhaps Greenberg’s article will wake some of them up.

Greenberg compares the Democrats’ plight with their situation in 1994. I believe it’s actually worse. Back in 1994 I wrote the first column that appeared anywhere outside of explicitly Republican media arguing that Republicans had a serious chance of winning a majority in the House. It appeared in the U.S. News issue dated July 18, which was published (in line with magazine custom) on July 11. That was almost five months later in the 1994 cycle than we are in the 2010 cycle today. That means that Democrats have more time to recover than they did that year, but it also means that they are in far more trouble at this stage in the current cycle than they were 16 years ago.

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