Bigger 2012 issue: Osama or Libya? 

Mother Jones Washington Bureau Chief David Corn tweets: “Attn on POTUS poll #’s re OBL raid pointless. Issue is not bump, but whether GOP weak-on-defense charge now useless.” The Weekly Standard’s Stephen Hayes agrees. I am not so sure.

On Monday morning, many were pronouncing Osama bin Laden’s a game-changer that “could serve to change the nation’s psyche.” The early polling seems to show that isnt’t going to happen.

And even on the foreign policy front, there is little evidence that Obama has won any sort of impunity. Yes, his approval numbers on how he is handling Afghanistan are up, but Afghanistan has not been driving headlines. Libya has. A month from now the liklihood that Osama will be driving headlines is low. The probability that Libya will be back on the front page is high. And just what are those Libya headlines that will soon be back in the news like? Here are today’s:

The American people currently blame violence in the Middle East for high gas prices. If a civil war that Obama abetted is still raging in Libya in 2012, Osama will provide little defense against GOP foreign policy criticism.

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