Another poll shows Toomey in the lead 

A new Franklin and Marshall College Poll shows Republican former Rep. Pat Toomey with a large lead over both of his Democratic opponents -- Joe Sestak and Sen. Arlen Specter -- among likely voters. Among "registered adults," he actually trails Specter, 33 to 29, but among likely voters he enjoys a ten-point advantage, 44 to 34 percent.This huge discrepancy might be grounds for viewing the poll with some suspicion, but it's important to remember that fewer voters participate in midterm elections than in presidential elections, and that this year's energy is on the GOP's side.

Against Joe Sestak, Toomey leads 38 to 20 percent, with the large number of undecideds reflecting the fact that Sestak in particular remains unknown to most Pennsylvania voters.

The key to Toomey's success: Independent voters are breaking for him over Specter by more than 2-to-1. Specter's unfavorables, at 45 percent, top his favorables by 13 points. Meanwhile, Pennsylvanians have a net favorable view of the Tea Party movement, 39 to 29 percent.

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David Freddoso

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David Freddoso came to the Washington Examiner in June 2009, after serving for nearly two years as a Capitol Hill-based staff reporter for National Review Online. Before writing his New York Times bestselling book, The Case Against Barack Obama, he spent three years assisting Robert Novak, the legendary Washington... more
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