An Obamacare bounce? 

The latest Gallup poll results on the generic ballot—which party’s candidate would you support for the House?—shows Republicans ahead by an extraordinary 48%-44%. The Gallup commentary makes clear how extraordinary that is; since Gallup first starting asking the question in 1950, Republicans have led only in the 1994 and 2002 cycles, years in which they won the popular vote for the House by 52%-46% and 51%-46%. Democrats hoped that House passage of Obamacare on March 21 would energize their voters. It seems to have done so, but only temporarily. The table shows the percentage of each party’s voters who say they are very enthusiastic about voting for the last four weeks:

                                      Repubs Demos Repub edge

Week ending March 21         43         25        18

Week ending March 28         50         35        15

Week ending April 4             54         35        19

Week ending April 11           48         30        18

An Obamacare bounce? Doesn’t look like it.

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Michael Barone

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