Do the AP's ten vote switchers on health care actually exist? 

Earlier this week, the Associated Press reported "Ten House Democrats indicated in an Associated Press survey Monday they have not ruled out switching their 'no' votes to 'yes' on President Barack Obama's health care overhaul, brightening the party's hopes in the face of unyielding Republican opposition." This story added to fuel to an emerging narrative this week that the Democrats were gathering some new momentum on health care reform

However, a number of people have started to question whether or not the AP's report is at all reliable. Here's Jane Hamsher:

As I told Rick Klein and David Chalian on TopLine yesterday, if you don’t think the endangered Freshmen and Sophomores in the House are driving the car right now, think again.  Remember that magic number of 39 Democratic votes needed to join with the Republican for a majority?  Well, that’s how many Freshmen and Sophomores were willing to ban together in the “oust Rangel” effort — rather than have the issue hung around their necks as a millstone in 2010:

Joe Crowley, an ally of Rangel who has also played a leadership role at the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, is leading the whip count efforts on Rangel, acting as a go-between between the vulnerable freshman and sophomore Democrats, on the one hand, and Rangel and Democratic leadership on the other.

They were willing to buck leadership to oust the Chairman of the Ways and Means Committee to keep their seats.

Think about that.

So we’re supposed to believe that Suzanne Kosmas is going to cast a vote for a mandate, and be cannon fodder for the Senate once again, when Florida Attorney General Bill McCollum is running for governor and threatening to file a lawsuit to block it?  She wants to trigger that as a top-of-the-ticket campaign issue in the state?


And Hamsher cite's one particularly prominent example of how the report was wrong:

And now Ryan Grim reports that Walt Minnick, whose Idaho district has a PVI of R+18, “responded by calling the AP to say that there was no way he was voting yes the next time around.” After what was no doubt furious arm twisting he’s now saying he’ll look at whatever they want to show him, but “if it is simply the Senate bill, I’ve looked at that and decided I was opposed to it.”

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